The slow death of a tyrant

This blog was written weeks ago after the Au conference in Egypt at which Mugabe appeared in search of affirmation. It was n't published for technical reasons which i don't understand and ended up stored in the drafts pages.

Nothing that has subsequently taken place has changed sufficiently to negate what i said then regarding the inevitable disintegration of the Mugabe regime and the probability that what comes next will be worse.

It is now a week later and i still had not been able to load this blogpiece to my blogsite due to technical reasons which i do not understand... this is an attempt to load from a different machine to my usual one which was loadshedded earlier this year... thus sending me into a frenzy of inactivity
Maybe i can begin my path to understanding along this alternate route...
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In the meantime Mr Bob the roz Mugabe has been playing a deadly game of possum. He is pretending to negotiate and has even shaken hands with his enemy.

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Original Blog written on eve of AU appearance by Bob in Egypt.


Weblog 1 July 08
Jozi

Perhaps Mr Mugabe fears the repercussions of losing power. He knows what he has done to his enemies and knows what his enemies will do to him. And it is obvious that he sees almost everyone as an enemy.

The African Union has debating whether he should form a government of national unity and whatever he may say in Egypt he will renege when he returns home because although he is the President he is no longer in power. The country is controlled by gangsters and thugs, and they will turn on him in an instant if they suspect he will ruin their game. In reality the AU indulged Mr Mugabe by even deigning to debate a government of national unity since his presidency is illegal and it is questionable that he should have been allowed to speak. By giving him the right to speak they gave him de facto recognition.

The leader of the opposition lacked the intestinal fortitude necessary to take power through the ballot and now, it seems, wants others to do his work for him. He justifies this by commenting that the situation is too dangerous to stand and he is probably right. His life hangs on a whim.

Rationally there is no reason why the AU should rebuke Mr Mugabe. He won the election. The fact that it was rigged was inconvenient but the margin of inconvenience is not sufficient to cause serious discomfort. There has never been any significant indication that the members of the Au are anything other than they have always been, and there were always unsavoury elements whose position was stolen, even in this era of greater democratic representivity. This is also an era steeped in expediency.

Modern politics like those of auld are based on expediency and expediency suggests that the sum total of development aid being dispensed to all the beggar nations that make up the AU is currently uncertain. The global economy is currently insecure and uncertain.

What is certain though is that a settlement in Zimbabwe will see [possible] massive amounts of reconstruction aid going to the place in an attempt to repair the enormous capital drain wreaked by a decade of suicidal politics. The country‘s mining industry is chaotic and they have just experienced the worst harvest since the 1940’s. That heap of development money will probably be money that doesn’t go to the rest. In economic language the opportunity cost of solving Zimbabwe’s problem is the diversion of hard to get aid from the other AU members.

At the same time the world is in a crisis of almost unprecedented proportions. Climate change, extreme weather conditions, food consumption generated food price increases plus famines and rampantly exploding cost of energy are wreaking creeping havoc on our global society and that means one thing… less largesse to go around.

Therefore the members of the AU will take the inherently rational position that they do not individually stand to gain from the addition of one damm hungry beggar to their alms conference. Collectively they will placate Mugabe and let well alone… If it’s broken why fix it?

The Blogospherian.