The Zumanian option

It seems the “new” ANC is faced with a quandary [For Offshore readers {O.R.}.].ANC: African National Congress: the governing party in the Republic of South Africa/ S.Azania:

The decision of the National Prosecuting Authority [NPA] to charge the newly elected anti-establishment, populist, ultra left supported President of the Party with a range of serious Financial offenses that could see him doing at least fifteen years, should he be convicted, is one that can seriously derail the worthy agenda of the ‘usurpers’ if they are not careful.

This agenda was vaguely spelled out last month in the five year re election process for the Party when the Ultra left leaning coalition of forces took over the Conference and saw to it that their entire faction swept the board. It is doubtful that the new ANC was as magnanimous in victory towards the so-called Mbeki faction as the latter was to the old vanquished pre-transformation tribes that held sway then.

Arguably the country lost some impetus last year with the ferocious struggle for power at the top. Countries are often able to comfortably survive bouts of serious neglect by those who play the power game at the top. They tend to ru7n on critical mass and we’ are doing well on critical mass. Of course once a decline in performance sets in then critical mass can slowly bury you. The country is entering a period of negative stagflation, which means that costs are rising and incomes are falling and we’re all getting slowly poorer even those people who are assuming they grow richer.

This means we don’t really have time to indulge ourselves with eight months of fighting before the trial. The idea that a trial of this magnitude should by scheduled for start only in the late part of the year effectively kills the year before it gets going. Those more radical than I are suggesting that this decision represents of form of economic sabotage.

Unrest is growing and the Kenya option demonstrates just how uncool things can become when the people feel they are being cheated… flagrantly and rudely and with disrespect. This strange bizarre notion that politicians “rule” in a democracy is a strange notion left over from our feudal past and we must resist its intrusion into our daily thought process lest it become a self-fulfilling meme.

In a democracy the people rule and last month that was brought home to us.

Secondly: This trial will run right into the next election and will pollute it one year before the world cup pressure piles on for all its worth. It would be illogical and not in the long term public interest to allow that to happen.

There fore there is only one logical answer to the problem.

Bring the election forward into April 2008.

How?

The ANC [or any other party in our constitutional system] appoints the members of parliament to their jobs to represent the party interest.

The party should with immediate effect recall those cadres delegated to Parliament, specifically those known supporters of the previous party president. They must then re appoint new loyalist members in sufficient quantity to outvote the entire parliamentary complement [ Meaning that for simplicity they should simply replace the entire existing parliamentary party cadre.]

They would then propose the motion of no confidence in the government [or respond favourably to the traditional opposition vote] bring down the government and hold a new election which they would comfortably win.

Jacob Zuma then becomes President of the country and the question of his guilt or not become more of a political decision than a legal one.

This option carries some downside risk. At issue is whether a quick downside risk is better than a slow drawn out downside risk, on which the emerging downside is bleak indeed.

A less dramatic alternative would be for JZ to stand down in the interest of the revolution and let the sideshow play in the shadows while they push their agenda. One benefit of this strategy [albeit not for Mr Zuma] would be to focus the attention of many nervous incumbents on optimising performance and we could se an outpouring of achievement between now and April 2009 by when the next general election must be held that could well sweep the party into power on a mandate greater than any seen before. There is nothing like the threat of losing a job to focus one’s attention on its performance… This was the famous Jack Welch formula at GE, the world’s largest corporation and it worked.

So the new incumbents face two options Keep JZ and go for an early election.

Or Dump JZ now he has spear pointed the ultra left into victory. In the long term hios obvious need for huge amounts of cash flow[ apparently he has at least four wives some contemporaneously some consecutive and some 18 children to support] means that he would easily be a target for the subversive capitalists who will happily bribe him into a comfortable moulded lifestyle that he may well find as difficult to resist as I would.

I understand that this seems a rude and ungrateful option and would personally NOT recommend it. I far prefer the first option as being soundly in our country’s best interest. Nonetheless is present it because these are the only two positive options for dealing with our current circumstance: all else will be prevarication and misery.

Alternatively of course the State could accellerate the trial date to circumvent this strategy... If they don't it could well be a case "you snooze you lose".

Cheers… Have a great double oh eight.