Scrap the Gautrain
It is time to seriously question the wisdom of building the Gautrain.
According to a recent report on the Voyo Mbuli programme radio South Africa comes bottom of the list in the fields of Maths and science. No where is this more apparent than in the current rising tide of madness over the Gautrain.
Are we mathematical illiterates? To judge by the way gambling has taken off over the past decade we have to assume we are but for certainty let us consider three numbers.
R20 Billion Rand-ie: R20,000,000,000.00 current estimate of the ballooning cost
of the Gautrain. It may be comfortably assumed that this will not be the final figure.
102,000 the number of citizens and tourists expected to use the elitist instrument each day.
R40.00 the present proposed ticket price inclusive of parking and transport to and from destination for traveller at 'other end'[Business Day]
We'll add one more number: the number of days in the year when 102,000 people might most probably use Gautrain. 365-104 [weekends: annually] public holidays and long weekends 15 = 261
Ignore for the moment the fact that Gauteng is like a graveyard from December 15 to January 15 each year when most people leave town to crowd out the coast and the place becomes sheer pleasure.
If we multiply 102,000 by R40.00 and then again that figure by 261 the anticipated revenue from the annual sales of Gautrain rides is marginally over one billion rand, equivalent to the interest on the 20 billion capital in a country with 5 % interest rates.
If we do a Mrs Thatcher here and put these figures into groceries language would you consider spending R20.00 to earn one Rand a sensible and feasible proposition-?
The fact that we are even debating this is testimony to our position at the bottom of the world's mathematical literacy tables -Hello.
We undoubtedly have to solve the problem of congested roadways but this is increasingly not the solution. It was always dubious that it was feasible it is now certain.
How can a country in the developing emerging category of existence even contemplate such a catastrophic concept-The entire province is jammed up daily and we anticipate spending five times our annual national transport budget on a rich kids toy-so as some politicians can avoid the discomfort of travelling by road. Get creative use the road reserves between the highway lanes-this figure of spending R20.00 to earn R1.00 is a sure path to ruination. Frankly the revenue does not even cover the interest on the capital outlay [but then we are a high interest country]
And while we are on the issue of mathematical illiteracy how come the price of this project jumps 400 % over a five year period when global inflation is allegedly around 2% and our targeted inflation rate has been under 6% for the whole time.
Either the first round was a thumb suck or we [the public and politicians] have been the victims of a classic 'Bait and switch' marketing strategy by those who sell trains. To facilitate their sale we had hype that this whole thing would be built for the World Cup in 2010. They are now selling the idea that it wont, after probably inflating the original cost to allow for a rack of contingencies to achieve the 2010 deadline.[which could be the real hidden reason for the escalation...the organisers are costing in the importation of chinese Indian or other heavy experience construction crews as contingencies.]
It is possible that we are witnessing the most dishonest sales pitch ever presented to any citizens of this city in which bent deals have always proliferated.
Assuming Parliament is of the people and for the people it is hard to see why the people should have to suffer this disaster which is most unlikely to benefit all of the people. They must reject this plan. We need a better and cheaper one.In fact what else could we do with 20 billion [bearing in mind that we haven't yet started paying for the guns and planes and ships and things yet].
NiK
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2 comments:
I'm with you on this NiK!
I doubted the commercial and logistical sanity of Gautrain from its very inception, and the more I read about the project the more I realise that it has all the makings of a white elephant and a scandal. French companies are amongst the principal contractors, and knowing the reputation of this nation, and its role in, amongst others, the Zuma affair, hardly inspires the confidence that everything is above board.
The problem of transport is being tackled from the wrong end. What is required is a safe, inexpensive and reliable mass transit system for the majority, one which would keep private cars and death trap 'taxis' off the roads. An elitist solution, or a 'rich kid's toy' as NiK correctly calls it, is not the solution to Gauteng's transport problems.
This would leave the roads safer and less congested, and those who want to use them should pay a toll for doing so.
There are some small holes in NiK's revenue projections, none of which change the fundamental issues he raises amd the correctness of his argument. The trains will be used at weekends and holiday times by tourists, but this is hardly the point. NiK also omits the point that the investment will pay off, eventually, but by the time operating and maintenance costs are accounted for, it may well take 40 to 50 years for this to happen, by which time surface transport of this nature will be redundant.
Regrettably, the project has probably gone too far to be scrapped or revised to be more appropriate for the needs it should be meeting.
(I have submitted a revised version of this comment to letters@mg.co.za )
The project is definately crazy.
I think aside from the obvious underhanded contractual dealings, this is the ANC once again playing "first world games", blind to the fact that South Africa is effectively, a developing nation.
The amount of new highways, not to mention houses and ifrastructure that could be created from this massive amount of cash is simply staggering.
When you consider the London transport system, which is simply huge, take a look at the figures :-
Nearly 11 million passenger journeys are made every day using London's public transport network · 6 million bus journeys · 3 million tube journeys · 1.8 million rail journeys
This is a system which has been in constant development for centuries and is one which has frequent problems.
Are we to believe that a single rail link is going to solve any congestion problems on Gautengs roads ?
London has a HUGE car congestion problem even with these 11 million passenger journeys.
London has a population of 7.5 million
Johannesburg has a population of 3.4 million
That's roughly half - in other words, Johannesburg is a pretty huge place. It would require 10 Gautrain projects to begin to match cities in developed nations.
The ruling elite are blinded by greed and blinded to the reality of the common person in South Africa.
Gauteng needs more roads, with Bus only lanes and a modernised Bus fleet.
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